Can I retire at 62 with $1.5 million as a single person?

A single person retiring at 62 with $1.5 million has 5 years until a full Social Security check at 67: a short bridge, but the choices in it are hard to undo. Claiming at 62 makes the check 30% smaller for life; waiting means savings carry 5 years alone. For this household, waiting comes out ahead of claiming at 62 in the simulation.

What 10,000 simulated retirements say

Your odds of lasting to 95 at each all-in monthly budget, in today's dollars. See how we ran these numbers.

The 4% rule versus the simulation

The 4% rule says $1.5 million supports $5,000 a month from the portfolio. Add the $2,071 monthly Social Security we assume for you and the budget comes to $7,070. But benefits don't start until 67, so for the first 5 years the portfolio pays the whole $7,070 on its own. Simulated, that budget lasts to 95 in 78% of futures. That's short of the 90% many planners aim for; the simulation puts the 90%-odds budget at $6,150, $920 a month lower.

How the money holds up over time

Spending $6,150 a month, the median simulated household still holds $1.89M at 85 (in today's dollars). In an unlucky future — the 10th percentile — it's down to $420K, and in a lucky one (90th percentile) it's $5.39M. Among the futures where the money lasts, the typical balance left at 95 is $2.67M — the cushion that a 90% target buys, more than the $1.5 million you started with.

Push spending to $7,250 a month and about 25% of simulated futures run dry before 95. When that happens, the median age the money runs out is 86, and the earliest tenth of those failures arrive by 80. These are late failures, after decades of the plan working, when Social Security would be the only income left.

What moves the odds

Holding spending at $6,150 a month and changing one thing at a time, nothing tested improves the odds by more than a point, so this budget is already close to its best setup. The biggest downside is a more conservative 30%-stock mix, which takes the odds to 81%.

Our read

IRMAA enters the picture

With $1.5 million and $6,150 a month of spending, your taxes in your 70s deserve attention now. RMDs from a large traditional balance plus Social Security can approach Medicare's IRMAA threshold, which starts at $109,000 of MAGI for a single filer in 2026 and looks back two years.

The 13 years from 62 to 75 are the window to convert part of that balance to Roth at rates you can see today. On spending, the 4% rule's $7,070 works in 78% of futures here, and the simulation's 90%-odds figure is $6,150.

Allocation still has teeth at 62. A 30%-stock mix drops the odds to 81%, while waiting to 70 for Social Security lifts them to 91%. Three more working years, to 65, would raise the safe budget to $6,650.

Related: The 2026 IRMAA brackets

One benefit, one plan

No spousal or survivor benefit backs this plan up: your $2,071 check is the only income that can't run out. From 67 it covers 34% of $6,150; savings carry the rest for life. There's no partner to share two other costs with, either: the Administration for Community Living estimates almost 70% of people turning 65 will need some long-term care, which this simulation doesn't model, and the single-filer IRMAA surcharge applies above $109,000 of MAGI, half the joint level.

Sources: ACL — how much care will you need?

Your timeline from age 62

1. 62

   Earliest Social Security claim

   $1,450 a month for life (70% of $2,071). It cuts the odds at $6,150 to 88%.

   Source: ssa.gov
2. 65

   Medicare

   3 years of individual coverage: COBRA for up to 18 months, then a marketplace plan whose subsidy depends on your income, not your savings.

   Source: healthcare.gov
3. 67

   Full retirement age (our assumption)

   $2,071 a month, 5 years after you stop working: 34% of $6,150.

   Source: ssa.gov
4. 68

   2032: projected trust-fund depletion

   About 78% of scheduled benefits payable without action from Congress (2026 Trustees Report): $456 a month less. Odds at $6,150: 86%.

   Source: ssa.gov
5. 70

   Maximum Social Security

   $2,568 a month (124%). Waiting raises the odds at $6,150 to 91%.

   Source: ssa.gov
6. 75

   Required minimum distributions

   Born 1964, so RMDs start at 75 under SECURE 2.0, on a median $1.61M. From 63 on, conversion income counts toward Medicare's IRMAA surcharge, which applies above $109,000 of single MAGI.

   Source: irs.gov

How we ran these numbers

• You, 62, retiring in 2026 with $1.5 million invested (home equity not counted) and no further contributions. Social Security of $2,071 a month at full retirement age, SSA's January 2026 average retired-worker benefit, claimed at 67 and indexed to inflation.
• 60/35/5 stocks, bonds and cash; spending flat in today's dollars, taxes and health insurance included; success means lasting to 95.

Benefit figures: SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet.

The methodology page documents every assumption and data source. Your own numbers will differ — run them below.