Can I retire at 65 with $1.5 million as a single person?

At 65, a single person with $1.5 million is on Medicare but still 2 years short of Social Security's full retirement age of 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later. The coverage gap is closed, so the open questions are when to claim, how to order withdrawals for taxes, and how to keep income below the $109,000 single-filer threshold where Medicare surcharges begin.

What 10,000 simulated retirements say

Your odds of lasting to 95 at each all-in monthly budget, in today's dollars. See how we ran these numbers.

The 4% rule versus the simulation

The 4% rule says $1.5 million supports $5,000 a month from the portfolio. Add the $2,071 monthly Social Security we assume for you and the budget comes to $7,070. But benefits don't start until 67, so for the first 2 years the portfolio pays the whole $7,070 on its own. Simulated, that budget lasts to 95 in 85% of futures. Here the rule of thumb holds up — the simulation's 90%-odds budget ($6,650) is in the same neighborhood.

How the money holds up over time

Spending $6,650 a month, the median simulated household still holds $1.77M at 85 (in today's dollars). In an unlucky future — the 10th percentile — it's down to $461K, and in a lucky one (90th percentile) it's $4.60M. Among the futures where the money lasts, the typical balance left at 95 is $2.31M — the cushion that a 90% target buys, more than the $1.5 million you started with.

Push spending to $7,750 a month and about 24% of simulated futures run dry before 95. When that happens, the median age the money runs out is 88, and the earliest tenth of those failures arrive by 82. These are late failures, after decades of the plan working, when Social Security would be the only income left.

What moves the odds

Holding spending at $6,650 a month and changing one thing at a time, the biggest improvement comes from delaying Social Security to 70, which moves the odds from 90% to 92%. Delay pays because savings can carry three more years, and the 24% larger check then covers more of the budget for life, which matters most in the long-lived futures. The biggest downside is a more conservative 30%-stock mix, which takes the odds to 81%.

Our read

The largest single-retiree budget here

$6,650 a month at 90% odds is the highest single-person budget in these scenarios, and failures at the 75%-odds budget of $7,750 arrive late, around 88. The median single retiree still has $1.77M at 85.

Taxes are the main lever now. If most of the $1.5 million is pre-tax, RMDs from 75 can lift MAGI past the single IRMAA threshold ($109,000 in 2026). Converting part of the balance between 65 and 75, and routing future giving through qualified charitable distributions after 70½, both reduce that pressure.

Even the 10th-percentile future leaves $461K at 85, so the risk worth planning around is late-life care rather than an empty account. Taking Social Security at 70 lifts the odds to 92% and the check to $2,568 a month.

Related: The 2026 IRMAA brackets

One benefit, one plan

No spousal or survivor benefit backs this plan up: your $2,071 check is the only income that can't run out. From 67 it covers 31% of $6,650; savings carry the rest for life. There's no partner to share two other costs with, either: the Administration for Community Living estimates almost 70% of people turning 65 will need some long-term care, which this simulation doesn't model, and the single-filer IRMAA surcharge applies above $109,000 of MAGI, half the joint level.

Sources: ACL — how much care will you need?

Your timeline from age 65

1. 65

   Medicare from day one

   No coverage gap; enroll in Parts A and B in the initial window to avoid late penalties.

   Source: medicare.gov
2. 67

   Full retirement age (our assumption)

   $2,071 a month, 2 years after you stop working: 31% of $6,650.

   Source: ssa.gov
3. 70

   Maximum Social Security

   $2,568 a month (124%). Waiting raises the odds at $6,650 to 92%.

   Source: ssa.gov
4. 71

   2032: projected trust-fund depletion

   About 78% of scheduled benefits payable without action from Congress (2026 Trustees Report): $456 a month less. Odds at $6,650: 86%.

   Source: ssa.gov
5. 75

   Required minimum distributions

   Born 1961, so RMDs start at 75 under SECURE 2.0, on a median $1.59M. From 63 on, conversion income counts toward Medicare's IRMAA surcharge, which applies above $109,000 of single MAGI.

   Source: irs.gov

How we ran these numbers

• You, 65, retiring in 2026 with $1.5 million invested (home equity not counted) and no further contributions. Social Security of $2,071 a month at full retirement age, SSA's January 2026 average retired-worker benefit, claimed at 67 and indexed to inflation.
• 60/35/5 stocks, bonds and cash; spending flat in today's dollars, taxes and health insurance included; success means lasting to 95.

Benefit figures: SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet.

The methodology page documents every assumption and data source. Your own numbers will differ — run them below.