Yearfold journal
Field notes on planning a real retirement
The Yearfold journal is honest, sourced writing about retirement planning under 2026 federal rules — the post-OBBBA tax brackets, the post-SECURE 2.0 RMD ages, the Social Security taxability thresholds that haven’t moved since 1993, and the Medicare IRMAA tiers that move every year. Every post is written by Yearfold’s founder, every load-bearing number traces to a primary source (IRS, SSA, CMS, Congressional Research Service, FRED), and every page carries the date it was last reviewed against those primary sources.
What you won’t find here: pump-and-dump stock picks, advisor-affiliate funnels, or generic “invest in low-cost index funds” restated for the thousandth time. What you will find: the math behind the 4% rule’s actual claim and its limits, when a Roth conversion ladder pays and when it costs more than it saves, what 2026 brackets really look like after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, how the Social Security “tax torpedo” reshapes a middle-income retiree’s real marginal rate, and what Monte Carlo simulation actually means when a calculator claims to use it.
June 14, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius
Does Your State Tax Your Retirement Income? The 2026 Map — and Why It Belongs in Your Plan
Two retirees with identical income can owe wildly different state taxes — and most people never run the numbers. Here's the 2026 picture: the 9 states with no income tax, the 8 that still tax Social Security, the states that fully exempt retirement income, and the planning moves (Roth timing, relocation, withdrawal order) that turn this from a surprise into a decision.
pillar · state-taxes · retirement-income · social-security · 401k · tax-planning · 2026
June 5, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius
Is $500K Enough to Retire On? An Honest Answer
For some households, $500,000 is comfortably enough to retire on. For others it isn't close. The difference is almost never the $500K — it's three other numbers: your spending gap after Social Security, your age and claim timing, and your household shape. Here's the honest math, with worked examples.
enough-to-retire · 500k · retirement-savings · social-security · early-retirement
June 5, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius
Do You Already Have Enough to Retire? Many People Do — They Just Haven't Run the Numbers
Half of workers have never calculated what retirement actually requires — and the rules of thumb most people lean on often overshoot the real number. Here's why 'enough' is a probability, not a single figure, how proper calculation sometimes reveals you can retire earlier than you assumed, and how to find out where you actually stand in 30 minutes.
pillar · early-retirement · enough-to-retire · financial-independence · monte-carlo
June 1, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius
The 2027 Social Security COLA: Why the Forecast Just Jumped to 3.9% (and Why You Shouldn't Bank on It)
The latest 2027 Social Security COLA forecast jumped to 3.9% — up from 2.8% a month earlier. Here's how the COLA is actually calculated, why the estimate is so volatile, when the official number lands, and how to plan for a range instead of a guess.
news · social-security · cola · inflation · retirement-income
May 27, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius
The IRMAA cliff: how one extra dollar of retirement income can cost you thousands in Medicare premiums
IRMAA isn't a tax — it's a cliff. Cross a Medicare income threshold by a single dollar and your annual premium can jump $1,148 to $1,736 per person, in full, with no phase-in. Here are the official 2026 brackets, the 2-year lookback that makes it stealthy, and the legal ways retirees stay under each tier.
news · public-policy · medicare · irmaa · retirement-tax
May 18, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius
The TCJA cliff was averted: what 2026 tax brackets actually look like
TCJA was made permanent by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025. Here's what 2026 tax brackets actually look like, how the standard deduction changed, and what a typical retiree saves vs. the doomsday scenario most blogs still warn about.
news · public-policy · taxes · tcja · retirement-tax
May 13, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
The 'Trump IRA' explained: TrumpIRA.gov, Trump Accounts, and what's actually new
TrumpIRA.gov launches January 2027. Trump Accounts for kids start July 2026. Here's what each program actually does, who qualifies, and what's still unclear — sourced from White House and Congressional Research Service documents.
news · public-policy · iras · savers-match · retirement-accounts
April 30, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Why your 401(k) projection is probably too optimistic
Brokerage retirement projections quietly skip three forms of risk. Here's what they leave out, and why your real-world result usually undershoots the line on the chart.
pillar · 401k · fundamentals
April 28, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
What is the 4% rule, and is it still right in 2026?
Bengen's 4% safe-withdrawal rate, what the rule actually says, where the 2026 critiques land, and the safe range you can defend.
pillar · fundamentals · withdrawal
April 24, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Sequence-of-returns risk: the math that breaks retirement plans
Two retirees with identical 30-year average returns can have wildly different outcomes if the order of returns is different. Here's why, and what to do about it.
pillar · fundamentals · withdrawal
April 21, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Roth conversion ladders in 2026: when they pay, when they don't
A Roth conversion ladder can save high-income retirees six figures in lifetime taxes — or cost them the same if mistimed. Here's the math.
pillar · roth · taxes
April 17, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Medicare and IRMAA: the retirement cost most calculators miss
Healthcare is the biggest variable in retirement spending. Here's what Medicare actually costs in 2026, what IRMAA does to high-income retirees, and how to plan around both.
pillar · medicare · healthcare
April 15, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
How much do I really need to retire? A 2026 reality check
The honest answer is a range, not a number — and the range depends on three things most rules of thumb skip.
pillar · fundamentals
April 8, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Social Security claim age: 62 vs 67 vs 70, with worked numbers
How much does waiting actually pay? Three workers, identical earnings histories, three claim ages. The gap is bigger than most people expect.
social-security · fundamentals
April 6, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Monte Carlo simulation for retirement, explained in 600 words
Why running 10,000 simulated retirements beats predicting one — explained without statistics jargon.
fundamentals · methodology
April 1, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
How a realistic retirement calculator differs from the ones your bank offers
Most bank calculators ask three questions and assume a 7% return forever. Here's why that produces wildly optimistic numbers — and what to do about it.
fundamentals · methodology