Yearfold journal
Field notes on planning a real retirement
The Yearfold journal is honest, sourced writing about retirement planning under 2026 federal rules — the post-OBBBA tax brackets, the post-SECURE 2.0 RMD ages, the Social Security taxability thresholds that haven’t moved since 1993, and the Medicare IRMAA tiers that move every year. Every post is written by Yearfold’s founder, every load-bearing number traces to a primary source (IRS, SSA, CMS, Congressional Research Service, FRED), and every page carries the date it was last reviewed against those primary sources.
What you won’t find here: pump-and-dump stock picks, advisor-affiliate funnels, or generic “invest in low-cost index funds” restated for the thousandth time. What you will find: the math behind the 4% rule’s actual claim and its limits, when a Roth conversion ladder pays and when it costs more than it saves, what 2026 brackets really look like after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, how the Social Security “tax torpedo” reshapes a middle-income retiree’s real marginal rate, and what Monte Carlo simulation actually means when a calculator claims to use it.
April 30, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Why your 401(k) projection is probably too optimistic
Brokerage retirement projections quietly skip three forms of risk. Here's what they leave out, and why your real-world result usually undershoots the line on the chart.
pillar · 401k · fundamentals
April 28, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
What is the 4% rule, and is it still right in 2026?
Bengen's 4% safe-withdrawal rate, what the rule actually says, where the 2026 critiques land, and the safe range you can defend.
pillar · fundamentals · withdrawal
April 24, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Sequence-of-returns risk: the math that breaks retirement plans
Two retirees with identical 30-year average returns can have wildly different outcomes if the order of returns is different. Here's why, and what to do about it.
pillar · fundamentals · withdrawal
April 15, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
How much do I really need to retire? A 2026 reality check
The honest answer is a range, not a number — and the range depends on three things most rules of thumb skip.
pillar · fundamentals
April 8, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Social Security claim age: 62 vs 67 vs 70, with worked numbers
How much does waiting actually pay? Three workers, identical earnings histories, three claim ages. The gap is bigger than most people expect.
social-security · fundamentals
April 6, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
Monte Carlo simulation for retirement, explained in 600 words
Why running 10,000 simulated retirements beats predicting one — explained without statistics jargon.
fundamentals · methodology
April 1, 2026 · Mindaugas Laucius, Founder of Yearfold
How a realistic retirement calculator differs from the ones your bank offers
Most bank calculators ask three questions and assume a 7% return forever. Here's why that produces wildly optimistic numbers — and what to do about it.
fundamentals · methodology