Scenarios
Retirement scenarios — pick your starting point
Sixty worked retirement scenarios — every cross-product of six ages (45 / 50 / 55 / 60 / 62 / 65), five savings tiers ($250K through $1.5M), and single-or-couple household. For each one we ran 10,000 simulated market futures to find how much the household can spend each month — Social Security included — and still have a 90% chance the money lasts to 95. Each page also shows the balance range over time, when failures happen, and which levers move the odds.
By Mindaugas Laucius · Last reviewed October 21, 2026
Monthly spending with 90% odds of lasting to 95
Today’s dollars, covering everything including taxes and health insurance. Assumes SSA’s 2026 average Social Security benefit claimed at 67, a 60/35/5 stock/bond/cash mix, and no other income. Open any scenario for the full breakdown.
Couples
Age 45 · Couple
Retire with $250,000
About $950/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 45 · Couple
Retire with $500,000
About $1,950/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 45 · Couple
Retire with $750,000
About $2,950/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 45 · Couple
Retire with $1,000,000
About $3,650/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 45 · Couple
Retire with $1.5 million
About $4,850/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Couple
Retire with $250,000
About $1,200/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Couple
Retire with $500,000
About $2,450/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Couple
Retire with $750,000
About $3,450/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Couple
Retire with $1,000,000
About $4,100/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Couple
Retire with $1.5 million
About $5,350/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Couple
Retire with $250,000
About $1,650/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Couple
Retire with $500,000
About $3,250/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Couple
Retire with $750,000
About $3,900/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Couple
Retire with $1,000,000
About $4,600/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Couple
Retire with $1.5 million
About $5,900/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Couple
Retire with $250,000
About $2,750/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Couple
Retire with $500,000
About $3,800/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Couple
Retire with $750,000
About $4,550/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Couple
Retire with $1,000,000
About $5,250/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Couple
Retire with $1.5 million
About $6,700/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Couple
Retire with $250,000
About $3,350/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Couple
Retire with $500,000
About $4,100/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Couple
Retire with $750,000
About $4,850/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Couple
Retire with $1,000,000
About $5,550/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Couple
Retire with $1.5 million
About $7,050/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Couple
Retire with $250,000
About $3,750/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Couple
Retire with $500,000
About $4,550/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Couple
Retire with $750,000
About $5,350/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Couple
Retire with $1,000,000
About $6,100/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Couple
Retire with $1.5 million
About $7,700/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Single retirees
Age 45 · Single
Retire with $250,000
About $950/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 45 · Single
Retire with $500,000
About $1,950/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 45 · Single
Retire with $750,000
About $2,600/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 45 · Single
Retire with $1,000,000
About $3,200/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 45 · Single
Retire with $1.5 million
About $4,400/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Single
Retire with $250,000
About $1,200/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Single
Retire with $500,000
About $2,250/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Single
Retire with $750,000
About $2,900/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Single
Retire with $1,000,000
About $3,500/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 50 · Single
Retire with $1.5 million
About $4,800/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Single
Retire with $250,000
About $1,650/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Single
Retire with $500,000
About $2,550/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Single
Retire with $750,000
About $3,200/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Single
Retire with $1,000,000
About $3,900/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 55 · Single
Retire with $1.5 million
About $5,200/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Single
Retire with $250,000
About $2,250/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Single
Retire with $500,000
About $2,950/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Single
Retire with $750,000
About $3,700/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Single
Retire with $1,000,000
About $4,400/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 60 · Single
Retire with $1.5 million
About $5,850/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Single
Retire with $250,000
About $2,400/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Single
Retire with $500,000
About $3,150/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Single
Retire with $750,000
About $3,900/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Single
Retire with $1,000,000
About $4,650/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 62 · Single
Retire with $1.5 million
About $6,150/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Single
Retire with $250,000
About $2,700/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Single
Retire with $500,000
About $3,500/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Single
Retire with $750,000
About $4,250/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Single
Retire with $1,000,000
About $5,050/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario
Age 65 · Single
Retire with $1.5 million
About $6,650/mo at 90% odds of lasting to 95, Social Security included.
Open scenario