Can I retire at 65 with $750,000 as a single person?

At 65, a single person with $750,000 is on Medicare but still 2 years short of Social Security's full retirement age of 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later. The coverage gap is closed, so the open questions are when to claim, how to order withdrawals for taxes, and how to keep income below the $109,000 single-filer threshold where Medicare surcharges begin.

What 10,000 simulated retirements say

Your odds of lasting to 95 at each all-in monthly budget, in today's dollars. See how we ran these numbers.

The 4% rule versus the simulation

The 4% rule says $750,000 supports $2,500 a month from the portfolio. Add the $2,071 monthly Social Security we assume for you and the budget comes to $4,570. But benefits don't start until 67, so for the first 2 years the portfolio pays the whole $4,570 on its own. Simulated, that budget lasts to 95 in 83% of futures. That's short of the 90% many planners aim for; the simulation puts the 90%-odds budget at $4,250, $320 a month lower.

How the money holds up over time

Spending $4,250 a month, the median simulated household still holds $871K at 85 (in today's dollars). In an unlucky future — the 10th percentile — it's down to $234K, and in a lucky one (90th percentile) it's $2.26M. Among the futures where the money lasts, the typical balance left at 95 is $1.14M — the cushion that a 90% target buys, more than the $750,000 you started with.

Push spending to $4,800 a month and about 24% of simulated futures run dry before 95. When that happens, the median age the money runs out is 88, and the earliest tenth of those failures arrive by 82. These are late failures, after decades of the plan working, when Social Security would be the only income left.

What moves the odds

Holding spending at $4,250 a month and changing one thing at a time, the biggest improvement comes from delaying Social Security to 70, which moves the odds from 91% to 94%. Delay pays because savings can carry three more years, and the 24% larger check then covers more of the budget for life, which matters most in the long-lived futures. The biggest downside is a 22% benefit cut from 2032, which takes the odds to 83%.

Our read

Medicare premiums become a tax question

$4,250 a month at 90% odds; the 4% rule's $4,570 works in 83% of futures. With Medicare under way, premiums become part of tax planning: Part B is $202.90 a month in 2026, plus a surcharge if your MAGI two years earlier exceeded $109,000.

Most single retirees at this level stay under that line, but a large Roth conversion or capital gain in one year can cross it, with the cost arriving two years later. Spreading conversions over the ten years before RMDs keeps each year's income lower. Delaying Social Security to 70 lifts the odds to 94%.

The weaker futures still leave $234K at 85. With $1 million at 65 the budget would rise to $5,050; a cautious 30%-stock mix, by contrast, lowers the odds here to 83%.

Related: The 2026 IRMAA brackets

One benefit, one plan

No spousal or survivor benefit backs this plan up: your $2,071 check is the only income that can't run out. From 67 it covers 49% of $4,250; savings carry the rest for life. There's no partner to share two other costs with, either: the Administration for Community Living estimates almost 70% of people turning 65 will need some long-term care, which this simulation doesn't model, and the single-filer IRMAA surcharge applies above $109,000 of MAGI, half the joint level.

Sources: ACL — how much care will you need?

Your timeline from age 65

1. 65

   Medicare from day one

   No coverage gap; enroll in Parts A and B in the initial window to avoid late penalties.

   Source: medicare.gov
2. 67

   Full retirement age (our assumption)

   $2,071 a month, 2 years after you stop working: 49% of $4,250.

   Source: ssa.gov
3. 70

   Maximum Social Security

   $2,568 a month (124%). Waiting raises the odds at $4,250 to 94%.

   Source: ssa.gov
4. 71

   2032: projected trust-fund depletion

   About 78% of scheduled benefits payable without action from Congress (2026 Trustees Report): $456 a month less. Odds at $4,250: 83%.

   Source: ssa.gov
5. 75

   Required minimum distributions

   Born 1961, so RMDs start at 75 under SECURE 2.0, on a median $773K. From 63 on, conversion income counts toward Medicare's IRMAA surcharge, which applies above $109,000 of single MAGI.

   Source: irs.gov

How we ran these numbers

• You, 65, retiring in 2026 with $750,000 invested (home equity not counted) and no further contributions. Social Security of $2,071 a month at full retirement age, SSA's January 2026 average retired-worker benefit, claimed at 67 and indexed to inflation.
• 60/35/5 stocks, bonds and cash; spending flat in today's dollars, taxes and health insurance included; success means lasting to 95.

Benefit figures: SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet.

The methodology page documents every assumption and data source. Your own numbers will differ — run them below.