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What will health insurance cost until Medicare at 65?
Estimate what health coverage costs from the day you retire until Medicare at 65, with COBRA, 2026 marketplace subsidies, and how much your income moves the bill.
Yearfold is a financial-education tool. It is not a registered investment adviser and does not provide personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Results are probabilistic projections based on historical data and stated assumptions; they are not guarantees. Methodology
By Mindaugas Laucius · Last reviewed October 21, 2026
Total until Medicare, after subsidies
$17,220
$48,000 before the premium tax credit
Your income vs the poverty line
256%
Subsidy ends above $62,600.
| Your age | Coverage | Full price | Tax credit | You pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | Marketplace | $9,600 | $6,156 | $3,444 |
| 61 | Marketplace | $9,600 | $6,156 | $3,444 |
| 62 | Marketplace | $9,600 | $6,156 | $3,444 |
| 63 | Marketplace | $9,600 | $6,156 | $3,444 |
| 64 | Marketplace | $9,600 | $6,156 | $3,444 |
If your income were higher
- With $10,000 more a year (for example, a Roth conversion or a capital gain): $24,900 in total, $7,680 more.
- With $50,000 more a year (for example, a Roth conversion or a capital gain): $48,000 in total, $30,780 more.
How this works
Retire before 65 and you need coverage until Medicare starts. Most people use COBRA, their old employer's plan at full price for up to 18 months, then an Affordable Care Act marketplace plan. Marketplace premiums can be cut sharply by the premium tax credit, which depends on your household income measured against the federal poverty guideline.
The temporary enhanced credits expired at the end of 2025, so the 2026 rules are tighter. You are expected to pay a share of income that rises from 2.10% near the poverty line to 9.96% between 300% and 400% of it (IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-25), and the credit covers the rest of the benchmark silver premium. Above 400% of poverty, which is $62,600 for one person and $84,600 for two, there is no credit at all.
We count each year from your retirement to 65 for you and, if you add one, a spouse: COBRA months first at the premium you enter, then the marketplace at your benchmark estimate minus the credit. Then we repeat it with $10,000 and $50,000 more income, because a Roth conversion or a large capital gain in a bridge year can cost you most or all of the subsidy.
Worked example: Single, retires at 60, $40,000 of income, $800 a month benchmark silver plan
- Income vs poverty: $40,000 ÷ $15,650 = 256% of the 2025 poverty guideline.
- Expected contribution: between 250% and 300% the share rises from 8.44% to 9.96%; at 256% it's about 8.61%, so $40,000 × 8.61% ≈ $3,444 a year.
- Credit: $800 × 12 = $9,600 benchmark − $3,444 = $6,156 a year.
- Five years to 65 at $3,444 a year = $17,220 in premiums after the credit.
With $10,000 more income the five-year cost rises to about $24,900; with $50,000 more ($90,000, about 575% of poverty) the credit disappears and the full $48,000 is due.
The full method behind every Yearfold number is on the methodology page.
Sources
- IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-25 — 2026 premium tax credit percentages
- HHS — 2025 poverty guidelines
- HealthCare.gov — see plans and prices
Rules verified against these sources on October 21, 2026.
Questions
Where do I find my benchmark premium?
Use the HealthCare.gov plan preview (or your state's marketplace) with your ZIP code and age. Note the second-lowest-cost silver plan's monthly premium, which is the benchmark the credit is based on, and enter it here.
Which income counts for the subsidy?
Modified adjusted gross income: adjusted gross income plus tax-exempt interest, untaxed foreign income and the untaxed part of Social Security. Withdrawals from a Roth account generally don't count, which is one reason retirees plan bridge-year income carefully.
Why does the poverty line come from 2025 for 2026 coverage?
Marketplace subsidies for a coverage year use the poverty guidelines published early in the year before. For 2026 coverage that is $15,650 for one person and $21,150 for two in the 48 contiguous states. Alaska and Hawaii have higher guidelines, so the figures here would understate subsidies there.
Is COBRA always the better first step?
Not always. COBRA keeps your doctors and resets no deductibles mid-year, but you pay the full premium with no subsidy. A marketplace plan with a credit can cost much less if your retirement income is modest. Losing job-based coverage opens a special enrollment period either way.
See this in your full plan
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