Can I retire at 62 with $250,000 as a single person?

A single person retiring at 62 with $250,000 has 5 years until a full Social Security check at 67: a short bridge, but the choices in it are hard to undo. Claiming at 62 makes the check 30% smaller for life; waiting means savings carry 5 years alone. For this household, waiting comes out ahead of claiming at 62 in the simulation.

What 10,000 simulated retirements say

Your odds of lasting to 95 at each all-in monthly budget, in today's dollars. See how we ran these numbers.

The 4% rule versus the simulation

The 4% rule says $250,000 supports $830 a month from the portfolio. Add the $2,071 monthly Social Security we assume for you and the budget comes to $2,900. But benefits don't start until 67, so for the first 5 years the portfolio pays the whole $2,900 on its own. Simulated, that budget lasts to 95 in 31% of futures. The rule overstates what's safe for this household; the 90%-odds budget is $2,400.

How the money holds up over time

Spending $2,400 a month, the median simulated household still holds $230K at 85 (in today's dollars). In an unlucky future — the 10th percentile — it's down to $48K, and in a lucky one (90th percentile) it's $667K. Among the futures where the money lasts, the typical balance left at 95 is $337K — the cushion that a 90% target buys, more than the $250,000 you started with.

Push spending to $2,550 a month and about 23% of simulated futures run dry before 95. When that happens, the median age the money runs out is 85, and the earliest tenth of those failures arrive by 76. These are late failures, after decades of the plan working, when Social Security would be the only income left.

What moves the odds

Holding spending at $2,400 a month and changing one thing at a time, nothing tested improves the odds by more than a point, so this budget is already close to its best setup. The serious risk is a 22% benefit cut from 2032: the odds fall to 52%, a drop large enough to plan around explicitly.

Our read

Claim now, or bridge to 70?

At 62 you can claim today. With $250,000 the simulation favors waiting: at $2,400 a month, claiming now gives 74%, while waiting to 70 gives 91%, close to the baseline of 93% at 67. The check at 70 is 77% larger than at 62 and lasts for life.

The risk in waiting is the 2032 cut, which drops the odds to 52% at this budget. Because your own benefit would cover most of $2,400 a month, a cut lands directly on the portfolio. Keep housing and other fixed costs low enough that a cut would be survivable.

Until Medicare at 65, individual marketplace coverage takes a large share of a $2,400 budget; its subsidy follows your income, not your $250,000. Staying at work until 65 would lift the safe budget to $2,700 and remove that gap.

One benefit, one plan

No spousal or survivor benefit backs this plan up: your $2,071 check is the only income that can't run out. From 67 it covers 86% of $2,400; savings carry the rest for life. There's no partner to share two other costs with, either: the Administration for Community Living estimates almost 70% of people turning 65 will need some long-term care, which this simulation doesn't model, and the single-filer IRMAA surcharge applies above $109,000 of MAGI, half the joint level.

Sources: ACL — how much care will you need?

Your timeline from age 62

1. 62

   Earliest Social Security claim

   $1,450 a month for life (70% of $2,071). It cuts the odds at $2,400 to 74%.

   Source: ssa.gov
2. 65

   Medicare

   3 years of individual coverage: COBRA for up to 18 months, then a marketplace plan whose subsidy depends on your income, not your savings.

   Source: healthcare.gov
3. 67

   Full retirement age (our assumption)

   $2,071 a month, 5 years after you stop working: 86% of $2,400.

   Source: ssa.gov
4. 68

   2032: projected trust-fund depletion

   About 78% of scheduled benefits payable without action from Congress (2026 Trustees Report): $456 a month less. Odds at $2,400: 52%.

   Source: ssa.gov
5. 70

   Maximum Social Security

   $2,568 a month (124%). Waiting lowers the odds at $2,400 to 91%.

   Source: ssa.gov
6. 75

   Required minimum distributions

   Born 1964, so RMDs start at 75 under SECURE 2.0, on a median $180K. From 63 on, conversion income counts toward Medicare's IRMAA surcharge, which applies above $109,000 of single MAGI.

   Source: irs.gov

How we ran these numbers

• You, 62, retiring in 2026 with $250,000 invested (home equity not counted) and no further contributions. Social Security of $2,071 a month at full retirement age, SSA's January 2026 average retired-worker benefit, claimed at 67 and indexed to inflation.
• 60/35/5 stocks, bonds and cash; spending flat in today's dollars, taxes and health insurance included; success means lasting to 95.

Benefit figures: SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet.

The methodology page documents every assumption and data source. Your own numbers will differ — run them below.