Can I retire at 62 with $250,000 as a couple?

For a couple retiring at 62 with $250,000, the bridge to full benefits at 67 is 5 years, with two claims to time. A common structure has the lower earner claim early while the higher earner waits, because the larger check becomes the survivor's. Here, though, both of you delaying to 70 lowers the odds at the 90%-confidence budget, so any delay should be the higher earner's alone and sized to what savings can carry.

What 10,000 simulated retirements say

Your household's odds of lasting to 95 at each all-in monthly budget, in today's dollars. See how we ran these numbers.

The 4% rule versus the simulation

The 4% rule says $250,000 supports $830 a month from the portfolio. Add the $3,208 monthly Social Security we assume for the two of you and the budget comes to $4,040. But benefits don't start until 67, so for the first 5 years the portfolio pays the whole $4,040 on its own. Simulated, that budget lasts to 95 in 7% of futures. The rule overstates what's safe for this household; the 90%-odds budget is $3,350.

How the money holds up over time

Spending $3,350 a month, the median simulated household still holds $153K at 85 (in today's dollars). In an unlucky future — the 10th percentile — it's down to $15K, and in a lucky one (90th percentile) it's $484K. Among the futures where the money lasts, the typical balance left at 95 is $248K — the cushion that a 90% target buys.

Push spending to $3,450 a month and about 25% of simulated futures run dry before 95. When that happens, the median age the money runs out is 80, and the earliest tenth of those failures arrive by 67. By then Social Security is paying, so running short means living on benefits alone for what could be a decade or more.

What moves the odds

Holding spending at $3,350 a month and changing one thing at a time, nothing tested improves the odds by more than a point, so this budget is already close to its best setup. The serious risk is a 22% benefit cut from 2032: the odds fall to 21%, a drop large enough to plan around explicitly.

Our read

The most policy-exposed scenario here

Of all 60 scenarios, this one depends most on Social Security arriving in full. At $3,350 a month, combined benefits of $3,208 would cover nearly everything from 67, and the 2032 cut drops the odds from 90% to 21%. Waiting to 70 drops them to 38%; claiming now, at 62, to 59%.

The reading: this budget is tuned to benefits at 67 and has almost no slack. A sturdier version spends less, or keeps one partner earning for a few more years, so the household could absorb a cut. Running your numbers with the 2032 toggle on shows how much lower a cut-proof budget would be.

Three more working years, to 65, lift the safe budget to $3,750 and put Medicare in place the day you stop, removing three years of premiums for two. With this little saved, the retirement date is the strongest lever you control.

Related: Social Security's 2032 deadline

If one of you is left

We assume both of you reach 95. At the first death, the survivor keeps the larger check and the $1,137 one stops, a 35% cut to household benefits. At $3,350 a month, the $2,071 left covers 62% of spending instead of 96%; savings fill the gap. From the year after, a widow or widower without a dependent child files as single: narrower brackets, and the Medicare surcharge (IRMAA) above $109,000 of MAGI rather than $218,000.

Sources: SSA — survivor benefit amounts · IRS Publication 501 — filing status

Your timeline from age 62

1. 62

   Earliest Social Security claim

   $2,246 a month for life (70% of $3,208). It cuts the odds at $3,350 to 59%.

   Source: ssa.gov
2. 65

   Medicare

   3 years of coverage for two: COBRA for up to 18 months, then marketplace plans whose subsidies depend on your combined income.

   Source: healthcare.gov
3. 67

   Full retirement age (our assumption)

   $3,208 a month combined, 5 years after you stop working: 96% of $3,350.

   Source: ssa.gov
4. 68

   2032: projected trust-fund depletion

   About 78% of scheduled benefits payable without action from Congress (2026 Trustees Report): $706 a month less. Odds at $3,350: 21%.

   Source: ssa.gov
5. 70

   Maximum Social Security

   $3,978 a month combined (124%). Waiting lowers the odds at $3,350 to 38%.

   Source: ssa.gov
6. 75

   Required minimum distributions

   Born 1964, so RMDs start at 75 under SECURE 2.0, on a median $113K. From 63 on, conversion income counts toward Medicare's IRMAA surcharge, which applies above $218,000 of joint MAGI.

   Source: irs.gov

How we ran these numbers

• Both spouses, 62, retiring in 2026 with $250,000 invested (home equity not counted) and no further contributions. Social Security of $2,071 + $1,137 a month at full retirement age, SSA's January 2026 average for an aged couple, claimed at 67 and indexed to inflation.
• 60/35/5 stocks, bonds and cash; spending flat in today's dollars, taxes and health insurance included; success means lasting to 95 with both alive.

Benefit figures: SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet.

The methodology page documents every assumption and data source. Your own numbers will differ — run them below.