Scenario · single age 60 · $1,000,000 saved

Can I retire at 60 with $1,000,000 as a single person?

In our 10,000-path simulation, a single person retiring at 60 with $1,000,000 can spend about $4,400 a month in today's dollars — Social Security included once it starts at 67 — with a 90% chance the money lasts to age 95. Accept 75% odds and the number rises to $5,100 a month.

By Mindaugas Laucius · Last reviewed October 21, 2026

A single person retiring at 60 with $1,000,000 has 7 years until a full Social Security check at 67: a short bridge, but the choices in it are hard to undo. Claiming at 62 makes the check 30% smaller for life; waiting means savings carry 7 years alone. For this household, waiting comes out ahead of claiming at 62 in the simulation.

What 10,000 simulated retirements say

Your odds of lasting to 95 at each all-in monthly budget, in today's dollars. See how we ran these numbers.

Chance the money lasts to age 95 at each monthly spending level
Monthly spendingChance money lasts to 95
$3,50099%
$4,40091%
$5,10075%
$5,90054%
$6,60036%

The 4% rule versus the simulation

The 4% rule says $1,000,000 supports $3,330 a month from the portfolio. Add the $2,071 monthly Social Security we assume for you and the budget comes to $5,400. But benefits don't start until 67, so for the first 7 years the portfolio pays the whole $5,400 on its own. Simulated, that budget lasts to 95 in 68% of futures. That's short of the 90% many planners aim for; the simulation puts the 90%-odds budget at $4,400, $1,000 a month lower.

How the money holds up over time

Spending $4,400 a month, the median simulated household still holds $1.31M at 85 (in today's dollars). In an unlucky future — the 10th percentile — it's down to $254K, and in a lucky one (90th percentile) it's $3.84M. Among the futures where the money lasts, the typical balance left at 95 is $1.90M — the cushion that a 90% target buys, more than the $1,000,000 you started with.

Portfolio balance in today’s dollars when spending $4,400 a month
AgeUnlucky (10th pct.)Typical (median)Lucky (90th pct.)
75$413K$1.07M$2.32M
85$254K$1.31M$3.84M
95$32K$1.65M$6.39M

Push spending to $5,100 a month and about 25% of simulated futures run dry before 95. When that happens, the median age the money runs out is 85, and the earliest tenth of those failures arrive by 77. These are late failures, after decades of the plan working, when Social Security would be the only income left.

What moves the odds

Holding spending at $4,400 a month and changing one thing at a time, the biggest improvement comes from delaying Social Security to 70, which moves the odds from 91% to 92%. Delay pays because savings can carry three more years, and the 24% larger check then covers more of the budget for life, which matters most in the long-lived futures. The biggest downside is a more conservative 30%-stock mix, which takes the odds to 81%.

Chance the money lasts at $4,400 a month, changing one assumption at a time
At $4,400/month, if you…Chance money lastsvs. baseline
Baseline: balanced mix, Social Security at 6791%—
More conservative mix (30% stocks)81%−10 pts
Growth mix (85% stocks)90%−1 pt
Claim Social Security at 6287%−4 pts
Delay Social Security to 7092%+1 pt
22% benefit cut from 2032 (trust-fund shortfall)84%−7 pts

Our read

Close to the 4% rule, finally

Here the 4% rule's $5,400 budget works in 68% of futures, against a 90%-odds budget of $4,400. The rule gets closer to the simulation as retirements get shorter and the wait for Social Security shrinks; at 60 the bridge is seven years.

With $1 million and a single filer's tax brackets, RMDs from 75 can be sizable if most of the balance is pre-tax. The single IRMAA threshold is $109,000 of MAGI in 2026, measured two years back; an RMD plus Social Security plus a one-off capital gain can cross it. Converting some of the balance before 75 spreads that income across lower-tax years.

Every account is already penalty-free, so the decisions are about timing. Delaying Social Security to 70 lifts the odds to 92%, the largest gain of any change tested here, and two more working years, to 62, raise the safe budget to $4,650.

Related: The 2026 IRMAA brackets

One benefit, one plan

No spousal or survivor benefit backs this plan up: your $2,071 check is the only income that can't run out. From 67 it covers 47% of $4,400; savings carry the rest for life. There's no partner to share two other costs with, either: the Administration for Community Living estimates almost 70% of people turning 65 will need some long-term care, which this simulation doesn't model, and the single-filer IRMAA surcharge applies above $109,000 of MAGI, half the joint level.

Sources: ACL — how much care will you need?

Your timeline from age 60

  1. 62

    Earliest Social Security claim

    $1,450 a month for life (70% of $2,071). It cuts the odds at $4,400 to 87%.

    Source: ssa.gov
  2. 65

    Medicare

    5 years of individual coverage: COBRA for up to 18 months, then a marketplace plan whose subsidy depends on your income, not your savings.

    Source: healthcare.gov
  3. 66

    2032: projected trust-fund depletion

    About 78% of scheduled benefits payable without action from Congress (2026 Trustees Report): $456 a month less. Odds at $4,400: 84%.

    Source: ssa.gov
  4. 67

    Full retirement age (our assumption)

    $2,071 a month, 7 years after you stop working: 47% of $4,400.

    Source: ssa.gov
  5. 70

    Maximum Social Security

    $2,568 a month (124%). Waiting raises the odds at $4,400 to 92%.

    Source: ssa.gov
  6. 75

    Required minimum distributions

    Born 1966, so RMDs start at 75 under SECURE 2.0, on a median $1.07M. From 63 on, conversion income counts toward Medicare's IRMAA surcharge, which applies above $109,000 of single MAGI.

    Source: irs.gov

How we ran these numbers

  • You, 60, retiring in 2026 with $1,000,000 invested (home equity not counted) and no further contributions. Social Security of $2,071 a month at full retirement age, SSA's January 2026 average retired-worker benefit, claimed at 67 and indexed to inflation.
  • 60/35/5 stocks, bonds and cash; spending flat in today's dollars, taxes and health insurance included; success means lasting to 95.

Benefit figures: SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet.

The methodology page documents every assumption and data source. Your own numbers will differ — run them below.

Recent policy changeTrumpIRA.gov launches in January 2027 — see our explainer on what it changes.

Run this scenario with your own numbers

We’ve pre-filled $1,000,000 saved and a target retirement age of 60. Set your current age and monthly numbers to see your odds.

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Educational projection, not financial advice. Results are probabilistic, not guarantees. Methodology

Frequently asked

  • Is $1,000,000 enough to retire at 60?

    It can be, if your total spending fits. $4,400 a month has 90% odds and $5,100 has 75%, in today's dollars with Social Security from 67.

Related reading

Yearfold is a financial-education tool. It is not a registered investment adviser and does not provide personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Results are probabilistic projections based on historical data and stated assumptions; they are not guarantees. Methodology

Last reviewed October 21, 2026 · Read the journal