Can I retire at 62 with $1.5 million as a couple?

For a couple retiring at 62 with $1.5 million, the bridge to full benefits at 67 is 5 years, with two claims to time. A common structure has the lower earner claim early while the higher earner waits, because the larger check becomes the survivor's. Here, both of you delaying to 70 also lifts the odds at the 90%-confidence budget, so the portfolio can afford the wait.

What 10,000 simulated retirements say

Your household's odds of lasting to 95 at each all-in monthly budget, in today's dollars. See how we ran these numbers.

The 4% rule versus the simulation

The 4% rule says $1.5 million supports $5,000 a month from the portfolio. Add the $3,208 monthly Social Security we assume for the two of you and the budget comes to $8,210. But benefits don't start until 67, so for the first 5 years the portfolio pays the whole $8,210 on its own. Simulated, that budget lasts to 95 in 74% of futures. That's short of the 90% many planners aim for; the simulation puts the 90%-odds budget at $7,050, $1,160 a month lower.

How the money holds up over time

Spending $7,050 a month, the median simulated household still holds $1.84M at 85 (in today's dollars). In an unlucky future — the 10th percentile — it's down to $414K, and in a lucky one (90th percentile) it's $5.24M. Among the futures where the money lasts, the typical balance left at 95 is $2.60M — the cushion that a 90% target buys, more than the $1.5 million you started with.

Push spending to $8,150 a month and about 25% of simulated futures run dry before 95. When that happens, the median age the money runs out is 86, and the earliest tenth of those failures arrive by 79. These are late failures, after decades of the plan working, when Social Security would be the only income left.

What moves the odds

Holding spending at $7,050 a month and changing one thing at a time, the biggest improvement comes from both of you delaying to 70, which moves the odds from 90% to 93%. Delay pays because savings can carry three more years, and the 24% larger check then covers more of the budget for life, which matters most in the long-lived futures. The biggest downside is a more conservative 30%-stock mix, which takes the odds to 82%.

Our read

A survivor plan matters as much as the portfolio

$7,050 a month for two at 90% odds. Failures at the 75%-odds budget of $8,150 mostly come late, around 86, when a surviving spouse may be living on one Social Security check.

That makes the survivor plan as important as the investment plan: who manages the money, which accounts pass to whom, and whether income in the survivor's late 80s is secure. Delaying the higher earner's benefit to 70 is the simplest way to raise that floor; in the simulation, both delaying lifts the odds to 93%.

If the median $1.55M at 75 were all pre-tax, the first required distribution would be about $63K, layered on two Social Security checks. Converting in the thirteen years before 75 shrinks it. Working to 65 lifts the safe budget to $7,700.

If one of you is left

We assume both of you reach 95. At the first death, the survivor keeps the larger check and the $1,137 one stops, a 35% cut to household benefits. At $7,050 a month, the $2,071 left covers 29% of spending instead of 46%; savings fill the gap. From the year after, a widow or widower without a dependent child files as single: narrower brackets, and the Medicare surcharge (IRMAA) above $109,000 of MAGI rather than $218,000.

Sources: SSA — survivor benefit amounts · IRS Publication 501 — filing status

Your timeline from age 62

1. 62

   Earliest Social Security claim

   $2,246 a month for life (70% of $3,208). It cuts the odds at $7,050 to 86%.

   Source: ssa.gov
2. 65

   Medicare

   3 years of coverage for two: COBRA for up to 18 months, then marketplace plans whose subsidies depend on your combined income.

   Source: healthcare.gov
3. 67

   Full retirement age (our assumption)

   $3,208 a month combined, 5 years after you stop working: 46% of $7,050.

   Source: ssa.gov
4. 68

   2032: projected trust-fund depletion

   About 78% of scheduled benefits payable without action from Congress (2026 Trustees Report): $706 a month less. Odds at $7,050: 84%.

   Source: ssa.gov
5. 70

   Maximum Social Security

   $3,978 a month combined (124%). Waiting raises the odds at $7,050 to 93%.

   Source: ssa.gov
6. 75

   Required minimum distributions

   Born 1964, so RMDs start at 75 under SECURE 2.0, on a median $1.55M. From 63 on, conversion income counts toward Medicare's IRMAA surcharge, which applies above $218,000 of joint MAGI.

   Source: irs.gov

How we ran these numbers

• Both spouses, 62, retiring in 2026 with $1.5 million invested (home equity not counted) and no further contributions. Social Security of $2,071 + $1,137 a month at full retirement age, SSA's January 2026 average for an aged couple, claimed at 67 and indexed to inflation.
• 60/35/5 stocks, bonds and cash; spending flat in today's dollars, taxes and health insurance included; success means lasting to 95 with both alive.

Benefit figures: SSA 2026 COLA fact sheet.

The methodology page documents every assumption and data source. Your own numbers will differ — run them below.