Yearfold research
What a 22% Social Security cut in 2032 does to retirement odds
Across 60 retirement scenarios, a 22% Social Security cut from 2032 lowers the odds of the money lasting to 95 by 11.8 points on average — and from 90% to 21% in the worst case.
By Mindaugas Laucius · October 21, 2026 · Last reviewed October 21, 2026
The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projects that the retirement trust fund runs out of reserves in late 2032, after which incoming payroll taxes would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits unless Congress acts. We took the 60 household scenarios from our retirement scenarios — single people and couples retiring at 45 to 65 with $250,000 to $1.5 million — and ran each one twice through the same 10,000-path simulation: once with benefits as scheduled, once with every benefit cut 22% from 2032 on. Spending is held at the budget that has a 90% chance of lasting to 95 under current law.
Key findings
- The odds fall by 11.8 percentage points on average (median 7). 12 of 60 scenarios drop below 75% odds, and 3 below 50%.
- The hardest hit: a couple retiring at 62 with $250,000, whose odds at $3,350 a month fall from 90% to 21%. Households whose budget leans most on Social Security lose the most.
- 7 scenarios don’t move: their budgets are so lean that 78% of the benefit still covers them. All are early retirees with $250,000 or $500,000, whose risk is the years before Social Security starts.
- Restoring 90% odds under the cut means spending a median 7.8% less (up to 17.9%), or $321 a month on average.
- Savings cushion the blow: $250,000 22.3 pts; $500,000 14.9 pts; $750,000 10.1 pts; $1,000,000 7.0 pts; $1.5 million 4.5 pts average drop.
The later you retire, the more a 2032 cut costs
Average drop in the chance the money lasts to 95, in percentage points, at each household's 90%-odds budget. Each bar averages the five savings tiers ($250K–$1.5M) at that retirement age.
View data table
| Retire at | Single: avg. drop (pts) | Couple: avg. drop (pts) |
|---|---|---|
| 45 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| 50 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| 55 | 6.2 | 10.4 |
| 60 | 16.0 | 18.2 |
| 62 | 15.2 | 26.0 |
| 65 | 12.8 | 21.6 |
Source: Yearfold 10,000-path simulation; cut = 22% of benefits from 2032 (2026 Trustees Report) · Last reviewed October 21, 2026
All 60 scenarios
Budgets are monthly, in today’s dollars, and include Social Security once it starts. “Cut-proof budget” is the highest spend that still has 90% odds if the cut happens. Download the data (CSV).
| Household | Retire at | Savings | 90%-odds budget | Odds, current law | Odds with cut | Change | Cut-proof budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single | 45 | $250,000 | $950 | 92% | 92% | no change | $950 |
| Couple | 45 | $250,000 | $950 | 92% | 92% | no change | $950 |
| Single | 45 | $500,000 | $1,950 | 91% | 85% | −6 pts | $1,800 |
| Couple | 45 | $500,000 | $1,950 | 91% | 91% | no change | $1,950 |
| Single | 45 | $750,000 | $2,600 | 91% | 86% | −5 pts | $2,400 |
| Couple | 45 | $750,000 | $2,950 | 90% | 85% | −5 pts | $2,750 |
| Single | 45 | $1,000,000 | $3,200 | 90% | 87% | −3 pts | $3,000 |
| Couple | 45 | $1,000,000 | $3,650 | 90% | 85% | −5 pts | $3,350 |
| Single | 45 | $1.5 million | $4,400 | 90% | 88% | −2 pts | $4,200 |
| Couple | 45 | $1.5 million | $4,850 | 90% | 87% | −3 pts | $4,550 |
| Single | 50 | $250,000 | $1,200 | 91% | 91% | no change | $1,200 |
| Couple | 50 | $250,000 | $1,200 | 91% | 91% | no change | $1,200 |
| Single | 50 | $500,000 | $2,250 | 91% | 81% | −10 pts | $2,050 |
| Couple | 50 | $500,000 | $2,450 | 90% | 90% | no change | $2,450 |
| Single | 50 | $750,000 | $2,900 | 90% | 84% | −6 pts | $2,650 |
| Couple | 50 | $750,000 | $3,450 | 90% | 79% | −11 pts | $3,100 |
| Single | 50 | $1,000,000 | $3,500 | 91% | 87% | −4 pts | $3,300 |
| Couple | 50 | $1,000,000 | $4,100 | 90% | 83% | −7 pts | $3,750 |
| Single | 50 | $1.5 million | $4,800 | 90% | 87% | −3 pts | $4,550 |
| Couple | 50 | $1.5 million | $5,350 | 90% | 86% | −4 pts | $5,000 |
| Single | 55 | $250,000 | $1,650 | 91% | 89% | −2 pts | $1,600 |
| Couple | 55 | $250,000 | $1,650 | 91% | 91% | no change | $1,650 |
| Single | 55 | $500,000 | $2,550 | 92% | 79% | −13 pts | $2,300 |
| Couple | 55 | $500,000 | $3,250 | 90% | 66% | −24 pts | $2,800 |
| Single | 55 | $750,000 | $3,200 | 91% | 84% | −7 pts | $2,950 |
| Couple | 55 | $750,000 | $3,900 | 91% | 78% | −13 pts | $3,500 |
| Single | 55 | $1,000,000 | $3,900 | 90% | 85% | −5 pts | $3,600 |
| Couple | 55 | $1,000,000 | $4,600 | 90% | 81% | −9 pts | $4,150 |
| Single | 55 | $1.5 million | $5,200 | 91% | 87% | −4 pts | $4,950 |
| Couple | 55 | $1.5 million | $5,900 | 91% | 85% | −6 pts | $5,500 |
| Single | 60 | $250,000 | $2,250 | 92% | 49% | −43 pts | $1,900 |
| Couple | 60 | $250,000 | $2,750 | 91% | 64% | −27 pts | $2,550 |
| Single | 60 | $500,000 | $2,950 | 92% | 76% | −16 pts | $2,650 |
| Couple | 60 | $500,000 | $3,800 | 92% | 62% | −30 pts | $3,300 |
| Single | 60 | $750,000 | $3,700 | 90% | 81% | −9 pts | $3,350 |
| Couple | 60 | $750,000 | $4,550 | 90% | 74% | −16 pts | $4,000 |
| Single | 60 | $1,000,000 | $4,400 | 91% | 84% | −7 pts | $4,100 |
| Couple | 60 | $1,000,000 | $5,250 | 91% | 80% | −11 pts | $4,750 |
| Single | 60 | $1.5 million | $5,850 | 91% | 86% | −5 pts | $5,500 |
| Couple | 60 | $1.5 million | $6,700 | 91% | 84% | −7 pts | $6,200 |
| Single | 62 | $250,000 | $2,400 | 93% | 52% | −41 pts | $2,050 |
| Couple | 62 | $250,000 | $3,350 | 90% | 21% | −69 pts | $2,750 |
| Single | 62 | $500,000 | $3,150 | 91% | 76% | −15 pts | $2,800 |
| Couple | 62 | $500,000 | $4,100 | 90% | 62% | −28 pts | $3,550 |
| Single | 62 | $750,000 | $3,900 | 91% | 81% | −10 pts | $3,550 |
| Couple | 62 | $750,000 | $4,850 | 90% | 74% | −16 pts | $4,300 |
| Single | 62 | $1,000,000 | $4,650 | 90% | 84% | −6 pts | $4,300 |
| Couple | 62 | $1,000,000 | $5,550 | 91% | 80% | −11 pts | $5,000 |
| Single | 62 | $1.5 million | $6,150 | 90% | 86% | −4 pts | $5,800 |
| Couple | 62 | $1.5 million | $7,050 | 90% | 84% | −6 pts | $6,500 |
| Single | 65 | $250,000 | $2,700 | 91% | 59% | −32 pts | $2,350 |
| Couple | 65 | $250,000 | $3,750 | 91% | 37% | −54 pts | $3,200 |
| Single | 65 | $500,000 | $3,500 | 90% | 76% | −14 pts | $3,150 |
| Couple | 65 | $500,000 | $4,550 | 90% | 67% | −23 pts | $4,000 |
| Single | 65 | $750,000 | $4,250 | 91% | 83% | −8 pts | $3,900 |
| Couple | 65 | $750,000 | $5,350 | 90% | 75% | −15 pts | $4,800 |
| Single | 65 | $1,000,000 | $5,050 | 91% | 85% | −6 pts | $4,700 |
| Couple | 65 | $1,000,000 | $6,100 | 91% | 81% | −10 pts | $5,550 |
| Single | 65 | $1.5 million | $6,650 | 90% | 86% | −4 pts | $6,300 |
| Couple | 65 | $1.5 million | $7,700 | 90% | 84% | −6 pts | $7,150 |
Methodology
- Households retire in 2026 and spend a constant amount in today’s dollars, covering everything including taxes and health insurance. Couples are the same age; success means the money lasts to 95 with both alive.
- Social Security: $2,071 a month at full retirement age for one person (SSA’s January 2026 average retired-worker benefit) or $2,071 + $1,137 for a couple (the average for an aged couple), claimed at 67 and indexed to inflation.
- The cut multiplies every Social Security payment by 0.78 from calendar year 2032 onward, for both spouses; cost-of-living increases continue on the reduced benefit.
- 60% stocks, 35% bonds and 5% cash. Monthly returns and inflation are sampled together from 1928–2025 history; 10,000 paths per run with a fixed seed (2026), so every number here is reproducible.
- Limits: taxes aren’t modeled separately, there’s no pension or other income, and the model doesn’t simulate the death of a spouse. Your own benefit and spending will differ.
The full engine is documented on the methodology page. For the policy background, read Social Security’s 2032 deadline, and to see your own plan with and without the cut, run the calculator with the 2032 toggle.
Cite this research
Mindaugas Laucius. “What a 22% Social Security cut in 2032 does to retirement odds.” Yearfold, October 21, 2026. https://yearfold.com/research/2032-social-security-cut
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